Example weather report mentioned by Bill in the Audio Recording:
Forecast
issued:
Friday May 7,
5:00 pm West Coast USA time, Nepal time is about 6:00 am Saturday
Nepal time. Next detailed forecast by Saturday May 8 at about 9 pm
West Coast
time USA, Nepal time is about 10:00 am Sunday
Saturday
May 8
Increase
in winds as jet gets close to the region
Average
Summit winds 40 to 60 mph (64 to 96 km/hr)
west to northwest.
Average
Winds at 26,000 feet (7878 meters) 30 to 50 mph (48
to 80 km/hr) west to northwest.
Average
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) 30 to 40 mph (48
to 64 km/hr) west to northwest.
Precipitation
in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)
0
to 0.50 inches (12.5 mm). 15% chance of getting up to 0.50 inches
(12.5
mm). Also 70% chance of getting less than 0.10 inches (2.5 mm) . Not
sure why
some models are showing up to .50 inches (12.5 mm) given northwest
flow..
A
basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is
equal
to about 1 inch of snow
Summit
Clouds: Not many perhaps just a few
early.
Temperatures
Night summit temperatures close to -18 F ( -28 C). Models do not
indicate much
change from the prior day,
Sunday
May 9 to Thursday May 13
Jet
is over Everest
Average
Summit winds 70 to 80 mph (112 to 128 km/hr)
west to northwest.
Average
Winds at 26,000 feet (7878 meters) 50 to 60 mph (80
to 96 km/hr) west to northwest.
Average
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) 40 to 60 mph (64
to 96 km/hr) west to northwest.
Precipitation
in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)
Trace if
any 15% chance of getting a trace. With winds at a dry northwest
flow moisture and clouds will be limited. .
A
basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is
equal
to about 1 inch of snow
Summit
Clouds: Not many perhaps just a few.
Temperatures
Night summit temperatures close to Night summit temperatures cool
slightly to close to -22 F ( -30 C) for Thursday May
13.
Friday
May 14 to Saturday May 15
Some
models suggest reduction in winds, it if happens it will probably be a
slow
process
Average
Summit winds 50 to 70 mph (80 to 112 km/hr)
west to northwest.
Average
Winds at 26,000 feet (7878 meters) 40 to 55 mph (64
to 88 km/hr) west to northwest.
Average
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) 30 to 40 mph (48
to 64 km/hr) west to northwest.
Precipitation
in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)
Trace if
any 15% chance of getting a trace. With winds at a dry northwest
flow moisture and clouds will be limited. .
A
basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is
equal
to about 1 inch of snow
Summit
Clouds: Not many perhaps just a few.
Temperatures
Night summit temperatures close to Night summit temperatures close to
-22 F ( -30 C)
*****************************************************************************************************************************************
Summary
Short
term summary now through Thursday May 13
Jet stream and
associated strong winds is to the west of our region and these winds
will
migrate toward our region by Sunday. The net impact will be a dry
northwest
flow developing by Sunday and strong northwest winds on Monday through
at
least Thursday May 13. As we mentioned in other forecasts these winds
are
reinforced by a trough of low pressure to the north of our region. Dry
weather
will also be the theme for Sunday through
Thursday.
Medium
term summary Friday May 14 to Sunday May
16
Some forecasts
suggest lower winds but from what I’m seeing we might have some minor
decrease
in winds but winds I would not expect much of a decrease since there
is an
upper level low that starts to move in from the north and east and
this will
tend to keep the winds relatively high but below jet stream levels.
Not
much on the forecast horizon in terms of
precipitation..
Estimated Real
Time Summit Weather on Friday
May 7, 8 am Nepal
time
Very limited data
close to 10 mph (16 km/hr) from the west but should be increasing
during
day
Forecast
Models-Confidence
With 5 being the
highest level of confidence and 0 being the lowest I would give the
wind
forecast and precipitation forecast from Sunday May 9 to Thursday May
13
a rating of 4.5 of confidence
Jet
Stream
The jet stream will
be over the region by late Saturday May 8 and Sunday May 9 and then
remain
over the region through much of the week
Monsoon
The monsoon is not
yet active but some very early signs in the southern part of the Bay
of
Bengal.
Storms
in Bay of Bengal
So
far there has not been any storms in the Bay nor are there any
forecasted through at least Friday May
14
Longer
term forecast starting Sunday
May 16 to Tuesday May 19
Hardest part of the
forecast since many are looking at these dates for summit and I must
say
“if” there is a window
it might
be rather short. Might get a break in winds of close to 30 mph (48
km/hr) on
May 17 or May 18 but that can quickly end by May 19 as another upper
low
starts to drop down from the north. Finally lower confidence in this
forecast
at this point in time
West Coast Weather,
LLC
This
forecast is based on computer generated weather data generated from
government
agencies that West Coast Weather, LLC. dab Washington Online Weather
deems
reliable. However, the weather can change quickly and unforeseeably,
and
there are many factors which you should consider in deciding whether
to
proceed with an outing, including the visible weather at the
trailhead, the
strength and experience of the party, snow and avalanche conditions,
route
conditions, etc. You are the final decision maker whether to proceed.
West Coast Weather, LLC dba Washington Online Weather cannot be held
liable for loss or injury arising from your decision to proceed, and
expressly
disclaims all liability related
thereto.